A Worthy Successor to the 'Iron Horse'

Can Aaron Judge stand with Lou Gehrig?

Yankees Captain, Lou Gehrig, at a game in the Bronx in 1938. The legendary slugger ended his career with a .340 batting average, 1,995 RBIs, and 493 home runs.

Posted Friday, April 18, 2025 7:00 am

By Rick Bueti

On April 30, 1939, Lou Gehrig played his last baseball game. Two years later, the greatest Captain the New York Yankees had ever produced was gone, the victim of a rare degenerative disease.

The pain of his loss still resonates today, and baseball fans would salivate to watch him take the field or swing the bat again.

His streak of 2,130 consecutive games, his ‘luckiest man’ speech on July 4, 1939, and ALS, the condition that took his life and bears his name (Lou Gehrig’s disease), have circled the baseball orbit for generations.

A handful of nonagenarians can probably summon memories of Gehrig at the plate, but for most of us the ‘Iron Horse’ remains a mythical figure on grainy film, or black and white photos.

BUY- 'Lou Gehrig'

Yet, after all those decades, we feel that we know him and yearn for a successor. So, can we find an Iron Horse today? The answer is yes, and he’s in the Yankees lineup in the form of Aaron Judge.

Like Gehrig, Judge is the soft-spoken Captain of the Yankees, a team-first player, and as he nears age 33, the best position player in baseball.

One would have to be an all-time great to be compared to Gehrig, but Judge’s accomplishments thus far in his career already fit that bill.

Like the old slugger, Judge is a hulking physical specimen, though a supersized version at 6’7” and 282 lbs. His only real flaws, a propensity to strike out at a high rate and relative struggles in the postseason, keep him grounded.

BUY- '62: Aaron Judge'

Consequently, Judge rarely praises himself. Instead, he deflects credit to his teammates, keeps his body in top shape, avoids stealing bases to save his legs, and puts himself in the best possible position to do what he does best - smashing baseballs.

Outside the obvious similarities of team-first focus, humble leadership, and world-class batting power, the stats speak for themselves on the Gehrig/Judge duality.

First, though, we should acknowledge the harsh truth. Judge will never come close to duplicating what the Iron Horse accomplished as a postseason player.

In 7 world series appearances in the 1920s and 1930s, Gehrig won 6 championships. After dropping the first one to the St. Louis Cardinals where he hit .348 (1926), Gehrig pulled a Michael Jordan, (or more aptly, Jordan pulled a Gehrig), only better.

BUY- 'Jeter'

Gehrig and the Yankees went 6 for 6 following their loss to the Cards - 1927, 1928, 1932, 1936, 1937, and 1938. Sweeping 4 of them, they were 24-3 for those games, posting an .889 winning percentage which affirmed the Gehrig-era dominance.

A .340 career regular season hitter, Gehrig upped his performance in the fall classics, hitting .361 in 34 games; he knocked 10 homers and managed 35 RBIs with 1.215 OPS.

Drilling down further, in 150 world series plate appearances, Gehrig struck out only 17 times but had 43 hits and 26 walks. The Iron Horse was arguably the original ‘Mister October’ clutch swinger.

Judge, on the other hand, has struggled in the postseason. In his only world series appearance to date the Yankees were trounced by the Dodgers in just 5 games last season. Judge hit .222 with only 1 homer and 3 RBIs.

'BUY- Ron Guidry'

In his postseason career, Judge has a respectable 16 homers and 34 RBIs in 58 games, but he has hit just .205 overall and has whiffed 86 times in 262 plate appearances. His teams are 8-7 in postseason series.

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So, how can we begin to compare Judge to Gehrig? Through their age 32 seasons, Gehrig had also played 1,687 major league games, while Judge only put in 993.

BUY- 'Billy Martin'

But if we adjust for appearances, injuries, and a covid-shortened season, which had robbed Judge of valuable play time, the numbers line up to make a case.

In his first four ‘full’ seasons (over 500 plate appearances), Judge’s cumulative WAR was 35.6. He won two AL MVP awards (2022, 2024), was runner-up once (2017), and placed 4th at another (2021). In 2022, he surpassed Roger Maris’ AL single season home run record (61), which had stood unbroken since 1961.

In his first four full seasons, Gehrig’s cumulative WAR was 35.8. He won MLB’s MVP award in 1927 when he drove 173 RBIs and was second with 47 home runs behind Babe Ruth’s 60.

Judge also has an advantage in the power department by a wide margin. He had already produced seasons of 52, 58, and 62, while Gehrig topped out at 49 (1934, 1936).

BUY- 'Steinbrenner'

Judge is also the fastest in baseball history to reach 300 homers, accomplishing that feat in just 955 games, or 132 fewer games than Ralph Kiner, the Pittsburgh Pirate who held the prior record (1953).

On April 3, 2025 Judge made his 500th extra base hit in his 999th career game. Only Joe DiMaggio (853 games) and Gehrig (874 games) reached that milestone faster.

His teammate, Jazz Chisholm, Jr. remarked, “He just keeps on performing, man, showing us why he’s the MVP of this league and one of the best players to ever play this game.”

One method of stressing the Gehrig/Judge comparison is to simply look at the 162 game averages of each player:

Gehrig: .340, 37 homers and 149 RBI with a .447 OBP, a 1.080 OPS and a 179 OPS+. Judge: .289, 52 homers and 118 RBI with a .407 OBP, a 1.015 OPS and a 174 OPS+.

BUY- 'The Yankee Years'

Judge has 7 years remaining on his contract which includes this season. If he can average a reasonable 35 home runs a year in those 7 seasons he will end up with approximately 564 home runs.

Gehrig finished his career with 493 homers, but he had 1,995 RBIs, good for 7th all-time. To put the magnitude of his RBIs in perspective, Barry Bonds was 6th all-time with 1,996, but he had nearly 3,000 more plate appearances than Gehrig.

If Judge’s production level stays current for 3 more years and then he tails off but stays healthy through his age 39 season, he has a possibility of reaching 600 home runs and 1,400 RBIs.

If so, he should conclude his career as a top 10 player of all-time, and he could cement that standing if he leads the Yankees to a championship.

BUY- 'Maris & Mantle'